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Here we go again... Today Bloomberg.com and the Wall Street Journal are reporting that the White Hou
December 30, 2009: The next six months will reveal how severe the next wave of credit risk really is
November 23, 2009: It was the great hockey player Wayne Gretzky who was once asked, “What do you a
The government’s proposed fee on the banks because of their losses incurred from bailing out the “too big to fail” financial firms are structure the fee so that it can’t be passed along to bank customers. You got it. Those are the same customers whose tax dollars were used in the first place to bailout the financial service industry. the banks are already passing costs of new legislation onto their customers in regards to such areas as draft fees and credit cards.
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The next six months will reveal how severe the next wave of credit risk really is. We know that a second round of delinquencies and foreclosures related to Alt-A and Option-Arm loans are about to begin, along with the requirement in January that banks and other financials will have to bring “off balance sheet” entities onto their books. One of our main concerns in the recovery of this economy is that we are going to hear new phrases like “too small to bail” or “too weak to wait.”
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Every day as the market opens, we at fi-Plan Partners are trying to look ahead and see where the markets are heading.
On Thursday, November 10th, the Wall Street Journal headlines read, “Fear of Double Dip in Housing.” Wow! For months now, we have been saying that we saw 2010 as part of a double dip recession. Don’t believe me? Go back and read our previous blogs. We still believe the banking industry has several problems ahead that are more than just housing loans.
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With the improving economic backdrop, equity markets have continued their strong rally. The Dow Jones Industrial Average, which bottomed intra-day at 6,440 on March 9, 2009 has risen above the mystical 10,000 level. The 57% advance in more than seven months is one of the largest on record. The improvement has been largely driven by the extraordinary stimulus efforts of global central banks, but more recently, is accelerating due to the return of economic expansion as consumers and businesses are increasing spending.
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We’ve discovered that no company is too big to fail and neither is our government. Existing government entities like Fannie Mae, Freddie Mac, Social Security, and the FDIC are proof the our government isn’t too big to fail. The government is now creating a whole new set of problems that could impact us for decades to come. Now the government wants to participate in healthcare.
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Is today like the same day in 1987? Is the government going to stop medicating our economy like a sick patient with a weak immune system or will the economy remain sick and dependent? One thing the 1987 stock market crash taught us is that the market can react quickly whether the news of the day is temporary or the beginning of a long term trend.
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Is this stock market rally for real? We don’t believe it is. The equity market may be on it’s last leg, the cash for clunkers program is over, and the first time home buyers tax credit and long term treasury bond purchase program will be over soon.
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A year after the fall of Lehman Brothers, where are we now, is the Great Recession almost over, and what can we expect in the near future.
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