#191: How The Election Could Impact Your Portfolio

How the election could impact your portfolio

We have some interesting data to share today about the presidential election. We are not here to say who is going to win or which side we are on. We’ve done a lot of research concerning different scenarios and how the election could impact your portfolio.

Possible election scenarios and their impact

In this chart, by Strategas Research Partners, there are two main scenarios we are looking at. The two scenarios at 45% and 40% show which sectors of the markets could win or lose depending upon the election outcome. If you are wondering how the election could impact your portfolio, this chart will give you a good idea.election scenario chart

Watch the underlying elections

How the election could impact your portfolioWhile everyone will be watching the top of the ticket, it is also important to watch the underlying elections of the Senate and the House. This also can impact the markets and your portfolio. If the Republican senators are successful in defending their seats, and the presidency stays Democrat, that will create a split government. That is extremely important as it will affect how the markets price in that outcome.

We saw this happen a few weeks ago when it looked like it was going to be a wave election for Hillary Clinton, and the House and the Senate being lost to the Democrats, the markets traded down. When the FBI investigation came out last week, the markets priced in that change and fell again. This led to nine straight days of the S&P 500 going lower. That’s the longest streak since December 11, 1980.

Cause of the current market volatility

How the election could impact your portfolioThis is not extreme volatility. It is people not willing to make positive or negative bets. People got burned in the Brexit market impact and now they are trying to protect themselves.

There are no guarantees; but, historically the few days that follow an election will not determine the future of the market and the economy. There will be knee jerk reactions and investors will get emotional and there may be times of volatility. We believe that in times like this, there are also opportunities.

Be sure to vote

How the election could impact your portfolioWe encourage you to go out and cast your vote. These are historic times. We are watching our clients’ portfolios and we will keep you updated. There is more news to come.


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Greg Powell, CIMA
Wealth Consultant
Email Greg Powell here

Bobby Norman, CFP®, AIF®
Senior Vice President
Wealth Consultant
Email Bobby Norman here

Trey Booth, CFA®, AIF®
Vice President
Senior Vice President
Email Trey Booth here

Fi Plan Partners is an independent investment firm in Birmingham, AL, serving clients across the nation through financial planning, wealth management and business consulting. Fi Plan Partners creates strategies in the best interest of their clients using both fee based investing and transactional investing.

The opinions voiced in this material are for general information only and are not intended to provide specific advice or recommendations for any individual. All performance referenced is historical and is no guarantee of future results. All indices are unmanaged and may not be invested into directly.

Economic forecasts set forth in this presentation may not develop as predicted.

No strategy can ensure success or protect against a loss.

Stock investing involves risk including potential loss of principal.

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