Inflation
Last week the Fed raised rates despite inflation being below the 2% target. Right now, real inflation is about 1.7%. One thing we have been keeping an eye on is the European inflation report coming out this morning. The reason we are looking at this is because if inflation is low there, the European Central Bank should keep rates low. That’s important for the investor because that causes US bonds to become more valuable.
Oil
Oil has been low which in turn has caused inflation to be low. Recently, oil is starting to pick up. Over the weekend Nigerian oil unions have been striking which is causing oil to go up. This is important to the investor because with risk assets inflation doesn’t affect the PE Ratio, an evaluation metric, until inflation hits 4%. We are currently sitting around 2%. We are watching oil closely because it could be a driver for inflation moving forward.
Gross Domestic Product
Based on the tax package that was released over the weekend, there is an estimated 200 billion dollars in stimulus to the GDP (Gross Domestic Product) in 2018 alone. To put that into prospective, that’s 1% of GDP, everything we buy and sell summed up into one number. That is a 50% increase on growth next year. In the last few years we have had an average of around 2% GDP. This could cause inflation which we think could be good. This is estimated to be the second largest in history behind only 1981.
Tax Cuts
We pointed out on an earlier Vlog that for every dollar most companies make, $.25 goes to compliance and regulatory issues. The president has cut 8.1 billion dollars in costs from American businesses in regulation this year. Prior to the new administration, 100 million dollars in costs were added every 3 days for regulation. These cuts could help companies with costs and in turn help the markets.
Greg Powell, CIMA®
President and CEO
Wealth Consultant
Email Greg Powell here
Bobby Norman, CFP®, AIF®
Senior Vice President
Wealth Consultant
Email Bobby Norman here
Ashley Page, JD, MBA
Senior Vice President
Wealth Consultant
Email Ashley Page here
Trey Booth, CFA®, AIF®
Senior Vice President
Wealth Consultant
Email Trey Booth here
Fi Plan Partners is an independent investment firm in Birmingham, AL, serving clients across the nation through financial planning, wealth management and business consulting. Fi Plan Partners creates strategies in the best interest of their clients using both fee based investing and transactional investing.
The opinions voiced in this material are for general information only and are not intended to provide specific advice or recommendations for any individual. All performance referenced is historical and is no guarantee of future results. All indices are unmanaged and may not be invested into directly.
Economic forecasts set forth in this presentation may not develop as predicted.
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