Market Rally Caution
We believe we are still in a bear market and that everyone needs to be careful about these market rallies we are seeing. We are seeing lower highs and deeper lows.
Temporary market rally in oil
The oil market has been very volatile coming out of the long weekend. Saudi Arabia, Venezuela and Russia agreed to a price freeze. That is only four members of OPEC and they need the rest to agree. This made oil spike but it quickly came back down. OPEC is in trouble and they are at risk of no longer existing as they did not expect fracking and other issues to affect them.
Snapshot of economic data for the week
Only 4 out of 10 sectors beat earnings expectations. We need economic reports to come out as “better than expected”. This week is a good week for that with reports coming from:
- manufacturing index
- mortgage starts and housing applications
- industrial production
- Fed minutes
- jobless claims report
The truth about consumer confidence
Retail sales were up from the report on Friday but not enough to drive against the larger economy. Retail is up compared to this time last year so that could indicate a rise in consumer confidence. Remember though, last year retail sales were affected by bad weather so while this is a good report, it is not as good as it seems.
Not enough strength to sustain a market rally
This is a good example of things that will cause a market rally. The markets are trying to grab a hold of something to go back up but there is not enough strength there to keep it moving up. We are watching for the claws of this bear market.
Please keep sending us your comments and questions.
[contact-form-7 id=”8119″ title=”Portfolio Team Blog Comment Form 2015”]
Greg Powell, CIMA
Email Greg Powell here
Ashley Page, JD, MBA
Senior Vice President
Email Ashley Page here
Bobby Norman, CFP®
Email Bobby Norman here
Trey Booth, CFA®
Email Trey Booth here
Fi Plan Partners is an independent investment firm in Birmingham, AL, serving clients across the nation through financial planning, wealth management and business consulting. Fi Plan Partners creates strategies in the best interest of their clients using both fee based investing and transactional investing.
The opinions voiced in this material are for general information only and are not intended to provide specific advice or recommendations for any individual. All performance referenced is historical and is no guarantee of future results. All indices are unmanaged and may not be invested into directly.
Economic forecasts set forth in this presentation may not develop as predicted.
No strategy can ensure success or protect against a loss
Stock investing involves risk including potential loss of principal.
Podcast: Play in new window | Download