Market Rally Caution
We believe we are still in a bear market and that everyone needs to be careful about these market rallies we are seeing. We are seeing lower highs and deeper lows.
Temporary market rally in oil
The oil market has been very volatile coming out of the long weekend. Saudi Arabia, Venezuela and Russia agreed to a price freeze. That is only four members of OPEC and they need the rest to agree. This made oil spike but it quickly came back down. OPEC is in trouble and they are at risk of no longer existing as they did not expect fracking and other issues to affect them.
Snapshot of economic data for the week
Only 4 out of 10 sectors beat earnings expectations. We need economic reports to come out as “better than expected”. This week is a good week for that with reports coming from:
- manufacturing index
- mortgage starts and housing applications
- industrial production
- Fed minutes
- jobless claims report
The truth about consumer confidence
Retail sales were up from the report on Friday but not enough to drive against the larger economy. Retail is up compared to this time last year so that could indicate a rise in consumer confidence. Remember though, last year retail sales were affected by bad weather so while this is a good report, it is not as good as it seems.
Not enough strength to sustain a market rally
This is a good example of things that will cause a market rally. The markets are trying to grab a hold of something to go back up but there is not enough strength there to keep it moving up. We are watching for the claws of this bear market.
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Fi Plan Partners is an independent investment firm in Birmingham, AL, serving clients across the nation through financial planning, wealth management and business consulting. Fi Plan Partners creates strategies in the best interest of their clients using both fee based investing and transactional investing.
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