2020 Optimism
Only a few more days until we close out this year. Going into 2020 there’s a lot of positive things happening. We know people have questions about all the political issues going on right now and how that will make an impact on the overall market. Basically, at this point, we’re seeing it more as a distraction as compared to what really could cause trouble for us. The economic numbers are very strong and if we continue into 2020 with the Fed remaining dovish and not raising rates along with inflation remaining low and corporate buybacks taking place, everything should continue to be positive. There’s a lot of strength in the economy and that’s been proven. Also, if the China and U.S. trade deal gets taken care of that will be another huge push for the U.S. in the right direction. Historically going into the fourth year of a presidential term, based on history, that’s usually a strong point from an economic standpoint. On one side there are the political issues with all the debates going and on the other side, businesses are showing strength. They are basically separate from the government in terms of what decisions they need to be making. They’ve got regulations they need to stay in front of but the reality of it is, is that business is very positive right now despite anything political being talked about.
More Money
2020 has the potential to be a good year. Some of the things that we’re looking at for that assumption, for example, is that research data shows 49% of Americans had some level of pay raise this year. That’s the highest percentage of raises since 2016. If they can make that type of commitment, it proves that businesses are doing well. This morning, in our discussion, we were talking about the news that broke over the weekend that showed that a 4 trillion-dollar budget was agreed on for the United States and with that, there will be 50 billion dollars of extra discretionary spending money for next year. The census data will come out today and a forecast showed that we’re probably looking at an 11% year over year increase of people buying new houses. In addition to that, there’s Brexit. Refer to last week’s vlog where Trey talked about the details around Brexit. Once Britain’s out of there at the end of January, they’re still going to be considered a top 10 market and should be easy to trade with them going forward, which is another positive for the U.S. There are a lot of things that are going on that are very positive right now.
The Data
If you take a notepad and put a line down the middle and put all the positives on one side and all the negatives on the other, you’re going to find that, right now, the positives far outweigh the negatives. There are 7.3 million unfilled jobs in the United States. A lot of those jobs are from fields such as the utility field and healthcare that pay good wages. The workforce is so full right now that you can’t even find people to fill those 7.3 million open jobs. The data shows that when people are getting compensation increases, that company is making a major commitment in that person. A lot of times you see that technology can keep wages flat or down, but right now, the technology is coming in strong and wages are going up. That’s a powerful combination.
Greg Powell, CIMA®
President and CEO
Wealth Consultant
Email Greg Powell here
Jay McGowan, CFP®, CPA, PFS
Senior Vice President
Director of Financial Planning
Email Jay McGowan Here
Fi Plan Partners is an independent investment firm in Birmingham, AL, serving clients across the nation through financial planning, wealth management and business consulting. Fi Plan Partners creates strategies in the best interest of their clients using both fee based investing and transactional investing.
The opinions voiced in this material are for general information only and are not intended to provide specific advice or recommendations for any individual. All performance referenced is historical and is no guarantee of future results. All indices are unmanaged and may not be invested into directly.
Economic forecasts set forth in this presentation may not develop as predicted.
No strategy can ensure success or protect against a loss.
Stock investing involves risk including potential loss of principal.
Securities and advisory services offered through LPL Financial, Member FINRA/SIPC and a registered investment advisor.
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