There is a lot going on this week. We kick off today with manufacturing numbers being reported. These numbers have been good the past couple of months and we would like to see that trend continue. On Tuesday trade balance will be something to keep an eye on. Also, on Tuesday the consumer confidence will be reported. Both consumer and business confidence are near record levels. Wednesday will consist of reporting mortgage applications data. These applications have been falling due to higher rates. GDP revisions will occur this week as well. We expect these to stay above 4%. Over the weekend, the Atlanta Fed said that the third quarter GDP is growing at 4.6%. If this holds up that would be a great number.
On Thursday personal income and consumer spending will be addressed. We are watching this very closely. A report came out recently that showed the savings rate was at 6.8% for June. This is above what we have seen and a little higher than what we expect with such high strong consumer sentiment and spending. If we have high spending and high savings that would be a great combination. Savings leads to investments which, in turn, goes into the market causing prices to rise. Also on Thursday, core inflation will be something to watch. This is the number that the Fed looks at the closest. Core Inflation is expected to come in around 2.3%. It’s important because higher inflation means the more active the Fed could be in raising rates.
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