We had a great portfolio strategy meeting this morning as the week ahead is full of a great deal of portfolio impact data. One could say that it is boring… but important.
Looking under the economy’s hood for portfolio impact data
While mainstream media is still covering the election, we are looking under the hood of the economy to make sure our economy is still going. This week we will see the portfolio impact data from manufacturing, 3rd quarter GDP revisions, consumer confidence, mortgage applications, and job numbers. We are looking for a confirmation that our economy is still moving along.
What’s going on at the gas pump?
OPEC made an agreement a few months ago to cut oil production after their November 30th meeting. At that time, oil prices spiked. As many expected, cracks began to appear in that agreement. Many OPEC countries have already backed out of this agreement with inner fighting before the meeting has even occurred. Two years ago, when OPEC could not come to an agreement, we saw oil prices plummet. This would be good for the consumer as gas prices will go down. We will be looking to see if consumers are spending that money they will be saving at the pump. This will affect not only our economy, but also the markets and your portfolio.
A tax cut could have the same desired DOL affect
Last week we proposed that President Elect Donald Trump would possibly attack certain issues by going around Congress to avoid filibusters. One such issue that has already popped up is the Department of Labor changing the threshold of how overtime pay was calculated. This would have been a major drag on American business. After law suits by 21 states and the US Chamber of Commerce, a federal judge stopped the DOL from pursuing this change. This is the kind of thing that this happening through the political process that is impacting businesses. In the long run it would have affected businesses’ hiring processes, spending, and profits. The judge in the case sighted that you could have the same effect through a tax cut that went straight to the individual instead of running it through and slowing down American business. This could be done without having to go through Congress.
A positive market impact
The market has responded positively to this DOL issue and it could be because we are starting to receive some kind of confirmation that campaign promises of tax cuts may, in some form or fashion, come about. That is a positive for the market.
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Fi Plan Partners is an independent investment firm in Birmingham, AL, serving clients across the nation through financial planning, wealth management and business consulting. Fi Plan Partners creates strategies in the best interest of their clients using both fee based investing and transactional investing.
The opinions voiced in this material are for general information only and are not intended to provide specific advice or recommendations for any individual. All performance referenced is historical and is no guarantee of future results. All indices are unmanaged and may not be invested into directly.
Economic forecasts set forth in this presentation may not develop as predicted.
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