Understanding the Supply Shock
The Federal Reserve recently raised interest rates in line with market expectations. Because interest rates had already moved higher ahead of the decision, the increase itself was largely anticipated and had already been reflected in financial markets. The move also followed rate increases from other major central banks, including the European Central Bank and the Bank of Japan. The more important question is what comes next. Historically, raising interest rates can be an effective tool for addressing inflation caused by strong demand. Higher borrowing costs make it more expensive to finance purchases, which can encourage consumers and businesses to delay spending. In turn, that reduces current demand and can help bring supply and demand back into balance. This creates a challenge when inflation is being driven by a supply shock. The current pressure in oil markets is an example. The issue is not necessarily that consumers suddenly want more gasoline. Rather, there is a constraint on the amount of oil available. Consumers still need to purchase gasoline even when prices rise, meaning higher interest rates do little to address the underlying supply shortage. That creates a difficult combination. Interest rate increases raise the cost of borrowing at the same time that the cost of essential goods and energy is increasing. If the current rate increase remains a one-time move, its impact may be relatively limited. A prolonged rate-hiking cycle, however, could create additional pressure without directly addressing the supply-side factors driving prices higher. Another development to watch is the relationship between the United States and China, particularly as the two countries navigate the global energy market. China is one of the world’s largest oil consumers and also produces significant amounts of refined petroleum products for export. Discussions between the two countries could have implications for global energy supply, tariffs and other geopolitical issues. The combination of energy prices, monetary policy and geopolitical developments makes the coming months an important period for investors to monitor.
The Impact of Energy on Inflation
Energy prices are one of the most visible ways consumers experience inflation. With gasoline prices around $4 per gallon in the Birmingham area and higher prices being seen across much of the country, energy costs are increasingly noticeable in household budgets. Consumers are particularly sensitive to gasoline prices because there is not always an immediate substitute. Higher prices can therefore have a direct impact on day-to-day spending and become an increasingly prominent part of the broader inflation discussion. One important measure to understand is Personal Consumption Expenditures, or PCE. PCE measures the prices paid by U.S. consumers for goods and services and is one of the inflation measures closely monitored by the Federal Reserve. Energy spending currently represents roughly 4% of total U.S. PCE. That percentage is significantly lower than it was during some previous periods, including the 1980s and early 2000s, when energy represented a much larger share of consumer expenditures. That distinction is important when considering the global impact of higher oil prices. While U.S. consumers certainly feel higher energy costs, the effect can be substantially greater in emerging economies where households devote a larger portion of their disposable income to energy. The total amount the United States spends on oil also provides useful perspective. U.S. oil consumption has generally remained around 20 million barrels per day in recent years, outside of the unusual conditions of 2020. At an average price per barrel, that translates into hundreds of billions of dollars in annual oil expenditures. When oil prices rise, the total amount spent on energy increases significantly even if consumption remains relatively steady. At approximately $80 per barrel, for example, annual expenditures are substantially higher than at lower price levels. At $100 per barrel, the increase becomes even more pronounced. That additional spending has broader economic implications because more consumer and business dollars are directed toward energy rather than other goods and services. As the year progresses, the path of oil prices will therefore remain an important factor in the inflation outlook. If energy prices remain elevated, consumers are likely to continue feeling that pressure, particularly as the economy moves toward the midterm election year.
Greg Powell, CIMA®
President and CEO
Wealth Consultant
Email Greg Powell here
Bobby Norman, CFP®, AIF®, CEPA®
Managing Director
Wealth Consultant
Email Bobby Norman here
Trey Booth, CFA®, AIF®
Chief Investment Officer
Wealth Consultant
Email Trey Booth here
Ty Miller, AIF®
Vice President
Wealth Consultant
Email Ty Miller here
Fi Plan Partners is an independent investment firm in Birmingham, AL, with a team of professionals serving clients across the nation through financial planning, wealth management and business consulting. The team at Fi Plan Partners creates strategies in the best interest of their clients using fee based investing.
The opinions voiced in this material are for general information only and are not intended to provide specific advice or recommendations for any individual. All performance referenced is historical and is no guarantee of future results. All indices are unmanaged and may not be invested into directly.
Economic forecasts set forth in this presentation may not develop as predicted.
No strategy can ensure success or protect against a loss.
Stock investing involves risk including potential loss of principal.
Securities and advisory services offered through LPL Financial, Member FINRA/SIPC and a registered investment advisor.
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