The Impact of Inflation on Thanksgiving
Every year, we review this data, and it has been rough for the last few years. It’s been a long time since we’ve been able to talk about consumer prices coming down. From 2020, the average consumer prices are up over 20%. However, what we’re going to focus on is just the Thanksgiving dinner part. From 2022 to 2023, the average price of a Thanksgiving dinner has come down from $64 to just over $61, a nice drop in prices. Hopefully, as everyone’s been preparing to sit down with the family, they notice some nice savings. A large percentage of that drop came from the price of turkey. Across the country, a 16-pound turkey will now cost you about $1.61 less. That should be a welcome reprieve right before the Christmas buying season. While we are down from last year, we’re still well above the 2019 level, so more work still needs to be done. However, it has to start somewhere, and we will take the drops where we can get them. Pumpkin pie, a veggie tray, rolls, and sweet potatoes are all higher this year, with everything else being lower.
After a year of a very bifurcated market where only a handful of stocks were constantly going up, we are finally starting to see breadth in the market, which we have seen for three weeks. The market has broken through resistance, a welcomed event after failed rally attempts throughout the year. More importantly, we have finally seen a few very strong days with breadth. On November 2nd, we had an eight-to-one day; last Tuesday, we saw a fourteen-to-one day. These are days where there have been a lot more stocks up than down. We look for these types of days to see if the market can sustain strength and rallies. We are hoping we can continue this rally through Thanksgiving week.
We have already averted a government shutdown once, and from what we can tell, it seems like we’re going to avert it again, at least through the rest of this year. The House and the Senate passed a continuing budget resolution. Portions of that will extend through January 19th, 2024, with the remaining parts extending through February 2nd, 2024. Instead of having everything lumped together, they split into pieces, which might make it easier to get something more permanent passed in the upcoming year.
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The opinions voiced in this material are for general information only and are not intended to provide specific advice or recommendations for any individual. All performance referenced is historical and is no guarantee of future results. All indices are unmanaged and may not be invested into directly.
Economic forecasts set forth in this presentation may not develop as predicted.
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